Fire ExiaTier 2
at Ascent Taipei
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 48.1% | 88 | 47-38-3 | 55.1% | 54.9% | 56.3% | +2.1 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.9% | 20 | 6-11-3 | 37.5% | 39.6% | 43.0% | -2.7 |
| Fire Suzaku | 8.5% | 21 | 16-5-0 | 76.2% | 72.0% | 73.3% | +8.9 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 7.6% | 18 | 8-10-0 | 44.4% | 45.5% | 46.1% | -1.5 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.3% | 8 | 3-5-0 | 37.5% | 41.7% | 43.7% | -3.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.1% | 14 | 5-7-2 | 42.9% | 44.4% | 40.3% | -4.0 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 6.4% | 15 | 8-7-0 | 53.3% | 52.6% | 52.5% | +1.0 |
| Water Allies | 4.3% | 10 | 3-6-1 | 35.0% | 39.3% | 34.7% | -6.9 |
| Horse and Taxes | 3.8% | 8 | 4-4-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.9% | +2.3 |
| Wind Allies | 3.8% | 10 | 6-4-0 | 60.0% | 57.1% | 62.5% | +5.6 |
| Fire Suited | 3.6% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 42.2% | -5.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.3% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.3% | -2.4 |
| Water Fractal | 3.3% | 6 | 1-1-4 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.0% | -1.1 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 69.7% | +18.9 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.6% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.6% | -1.1 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.2% | 5 | 4-1-0 | 80.0% | 66.7% | 59.3% | +5.3 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 65.7% | +15.1 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 1.9% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 47.9% | -1.2 |
| Water Genbu | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 1.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 56.7% | +10.6 |
| Water Aetherwing | 1.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.2% | +3.6 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.2% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 41.6% | -6.3 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 0.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.1% | +22.6 |
| Slimes | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.5% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 23.7% | -25.2 |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.1% | -9.4 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Polkhawk | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Seiryuu | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Beast | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slimes | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.9% | -9.8 |
| Wind Tera Kongming | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Vanitas | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 17 from this event
The 17 public Fire Exia decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 44 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 44 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Huaji of Heaven's Rise | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Exia Sight | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Crimson Prescience | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Evercurrent Raider | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Spellward Scepter | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Hemorrhaging Rend | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Bloodshroud Temper | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Proof of Life | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rictus Tiding | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Relentless Outburst | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Regal Inquisition | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Staggering Strike | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Sovereign Sanctuary | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Flame Sweep | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Restorative Flame | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Savage Sunder | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Annul Spell | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fang of Dragon's Breath | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Intensified Pyre | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Three of Hearts | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Meltdown | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Fire | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spurn to Ash | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Enrage | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |